The Future Migration Scenarios for Europe project focuses on understanding the patterns of migration at multiple levels, from the international over the national and regional to the local level.
Funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, this three-year project, coordinated by Profs. Henning Sten Hansen and Carsten Kessler from Aalborg University, is formed by 9 partners from 8 European countries and follows a multi-disciplinary approach involving experts from fields such as demography, economics, geography, geoinformatics, sociology, statistics, among others.
The Future Migration Scenarios for Europe project aims to determine both current and future trends of migration by looking at:
• the major factors explaining migrant movement patterns by analysing regional and local circumstances that either attract migrants or ‘push’ potential migrants to move;
• the possible future regional sociodemographic, economic and environmental challenges that may shape future migrant movement patterns in Europe.
Thus, FUME will support planning and policy-making processes at many levels by formulating integrated and coherent visions of how migration to and within Europe might evolve.
The local perspective
Local circumstances play a major role in the migration process, from the decision to migrate through the transit process up to the settlement in the destination countries. Nearly all international migrants generally move to the largest cities in destination countries, either directly, or after one or more internal moves. This is also the case across Europe, where population growth in many cities can be largely attributed to an influx of migrants. At the same time, in countries of origin the largest cities often function as gateways to destinations abroad. Many potential migrants in villages and small towns in origin countries first move to these larger cities before leaving their country. Cities, therefore, both in countries of origin and destination, are significant determinants of global migration and small-scale local knowledge on migration is necessary to avoid misleading results associated with the limitations arising from the use of global or national patterns only. Consequently, a major aspect of the scope and approach of the Future Migration Scenarios for Europe project is to look at specific case areas, combined with an overall analysis of migration patterns within and between these, to create scenarios for how migration may evolve in Europe.
Irpps contributes to FUME mainly with a report on the drivers of international migration in Work Package 3 ‘Scenario narratives’ and with two case studies focusing on the urban areas of Senegal and the Rome Metropolitan Area (Città Metropolitana di Roma) in Work Package 6 ‘Perspectives of migration – thematic studies’.
Corrado Bonifazi, Maria Girolama Caruso, Massimiliano Crisci, Stefano degli Uberti, Frank Heins, Angela Paparusso, Andrea Pelliccia, Roberta Ruggeri, Laura Sperandio, Wanda Toffoletti and Mattia Vitiello, as well as Daniele De Rocchi and Giacomo Panzeri.