In order to plan its school policies, the Municipality of Valdobbiadene requested analyses and forecasts to be carried out on the evolution of the school population in the municipality at the different nursery, primary, middle and secondary school levels, in order to identify the future demand for these services in the municipality.
The CNR-IRPPS research team performed the following activities with reference to the years 2020 and 2025:
– preparation of demographic forecasts of the school-age population in the municipality of Valdobbiadene;
– estimation of the amount of pupils enrolled in the schools in the municipality;
– provision of an estimate of the future costs of the services and school facilities managed by the municipality.
The demographic forecast method used is based on generational projections, performed using ‘survival’ rates including mortality and mobility in the passage of the different generations from one age to the next. Separate forecasts were carried out for the seven parts of the municipality, by nationality and gender. The statistical base consisted of the personal data of each year group of residents as at 31 December every year from 2000 to 2015.
The estimates for each school facility, with an annual average cost per student for the municipality for the school bus, canteen service and ordinary running costs, were built in the hypothesis that the overall costs will remain at present levels and the future average expense per student will only be influenced by variations in the school population.
Crisci Massimiliano, Maria Girolama Caruso, Giuseppe Gesano, Frank Heins (2016), La popolazione scolastica del comune di Valdobbiadene. Previsioni demografiche al 2025, Rapporto di ricerca CNR-IRPPS.
- Maria Girolama Caruso, Giuseppe Gesano, Frank Heins.