The main objective of this research work, developed in collaboration with the Center for Economic Evaluation and HTA of the CEIS Faculty of Economics at the University of Rome of Tor Vergata, will be the development of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis of the Cost of Illness of Maculopathies in Italy. Within the economic evaluations one of the most critical aspects is the uncertainty of the parameters used in the model that could compromise the reliability of the estimates obtained. Different methods were developed in the literature in order to estimate the uncertainty of economic models (One / multi-way deterministic sensitivity analysis, bootstrap simulation, Probabilistic sensitivity analysis etc.). However, in the context of economic evaluations and, more specifically, for Cost of Illness models, probabilistic sensitivity analysis with Montecarlo simulations is one of the most recommended methods and 95% confidence interval estimation is the simpler way for communicate the uncertainty of the results. The results of the work will be implemented within the blindness observatory develpped by the EEHTA group of CEIS University of Rome Tor Vergata (director of the center Prof. Francesco Saverio Mennini).
The aim of the analysis is to estimate the uncertainty of the parameters used in a cost of illness model off maculopathies in Italy already developed. The objective of the project is to develop an excel based model that can estimate the 95% intervals of the main results obtained from the CoI model through Montecarlo simulations associating specific probability distributions to each parameter used within the model.
- Andrea Marcellusi, Fabio Palazzo, collaborazione con EEHTA-CEIS. Facoltà di Economia Università degli studi di Roma “Tor Vergata”.