The research work, conducted in collaboration with the Economic Evaluation and HTA center of CEIS, Faculty of Economics at the University of Rome Tor Vergata, involves the development of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis related to the Cost of Illness estimates for maculopathies in Italy. Within economic evaluations, one of the most critical aspects is the uncertainty of the parameters used in the model, which can compromise the reliability of the estimates obtained. To this end, various methodologies have been developed in the literature to estimate the uncertainty of economic models (One/multi-way deterministic sensitivity analysis, bootstrap simulation, Probabilistic sensitivity analysis, etc.). However, in the context of economic evaluations and Cost of Illness models in particular, probabilistic sensitivity analysis with Monte Carlo simulations represents one of the most recommended methods, and the estimation of 95% confidence intervals is one of the most understandable indicators for communicating the uncertainty of economic results to Health System stakeholders.

The objective of the analysis is to estimate the uncertainty of the parameters used in a previously developed Cost of Illness model for maculopathies in Italy. Specifically, the project aims to develop an Excel-based model capable of estimating the 95% intervals of the main results obtained from the CoI model through Monte Carlo simulations, associating specific probability distributions with each parameter used within the model.

Andrea Marcellusi, Fabio Palazzo, in collaboration with EEHTA-CEIS. Faculty of Economics, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”.